Reuters reported that all recent crude loadings from Saudi Arabia's Yanbu port have been conducted without continuous AIS signals, according to analysts at Vortexa and Kpler. The practice, known as “dark” shipping, makes it harder for traders and market institutions to establish how much crude is moving through the Red Sea.
The disruption follows the Houthi declaration of a maritime embargo against Saudi Arabia on July 20. Since then, the group has claimed attacks on Saudi-linked tankers and energy facilities, increasing the security risks associated with shipping through the region.
The uncertainty has become significant because vessel-tracking data is widely used by OPEC, the International Energy Agency and commodity traders to estimate global supply and anticipate market movements.
The divergence between tracking estimates is already substantial. For the week beginning August 3, Vortexa estimated Yanbu loadings at 2.38 million barrels per day, compared with 2.71 million bpd the previous week. Kpler estimated a much sharper decline to 1.78 million bpd from 4.04 million bpd, while AXSMarine calculated a rise to 640,000 bpd from about 420,000 bpd.
Saudi Arabia is responding partly by redirecting crude towards northern routes. Loadings at Egypt's Sidi Kerir terminal averaged a record 2.17 million bpd last week, about 50% higher than the previous week, with roughly 90% of those volumes consisting of Saudi crude, according to Vortexa.
The shift is increasing pressure on shipping operators and insurers. War-risk insurance costs have risen, while tanker companies are altering routes to avoid exposed sections of the Red Sea.
For energy markets, the immediate issue is therefore not only how much Saudi crude is physically moving, but how reliably traders can measure those flows.
The key indicators will be tanker movements, insurance costs, Bab el-Mandeb traffic and whether Saudi Arabia can maintain alternative export routes without creating further logistical bottlenecks.
