Shell reported third-quarter adjusted earnings of $10.81 billion, almost double the $5.43 billion recorded a year earlier and above analysts’ average estimate of $10.33 billion. The company also increased its quarterly share buyback programme to $5 billion from $3 billion, reflecting stronger cash generation.
The results were supported by unusually strong refining conditions. Shell’s refining margin reached $42 a barrel, compared with $11.60 a barrel in the same period last year and $24 a barrel in the previous quarter. Its integrated gas and upstream divisions also reported profits above analysts’ expectations.
TotalEnergies reported adjusted net income of $9.1 billion for the July-to-September period, a 127% increase from $4 billion a year earlier. The result exceeded analysts’ average forecast of $8.3 billion. Its refining and chemicals division generated $3.6 billion in net income, twice the level recorded a year earlier, while income from its liquefied natural gas business rose to $1.9 billion.
Both companies benefited from disruptions associated with the US-Israeli war involving Iran, which have affected energy supply and increased volatility in oil and gas markets. Tighter supplies of refined products have allowed refiners to capture higher margins, while elevated gas prices and trading opportunities have supported integrated energy earnings.
However, stronger profits do not necessarily indicate a broad improvement in the global economy. Higher energy prices can increase costs for transport operators, manufacturers and households, potentially feeding inflation into consumer prices and business expenses. Refining profitability can also weaken if supply conditions normalise or demand for fuels deteriorates.
Shell’s decision to increase buybacks signals confidence in its near-term financial position, while TotalEnergies maintained plans for $2.5 billion in share repurchases in each of the fourth quarter of 2026 and first quarter of 2027. Capital allocation will remain important as energy companies balance shareholder returns against investment needs and operational risks.
For investors, the central question is how much of the current earnings strength can be sustained. Future results will depend on geopolitical developments, refining margins, gas prices and the resilience of global energy demand.
