The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development raised its global growth forecast for 2026 to 2.9%, from 2.8% in its June outlook. The organisation expects growth to reach 3.0% in 2027, below its previous 3.1% projection.
The OECD said investment linked to artificial intelligence has helped support economic activity despite the energy shock caused by the conflict. Strong technology investment has provided an important source of demand at a time when higher energy costs and trade restrictions are creating pressure elsewhere in the global economy.
However, the organisation expects the effects of the commodity-price shock to become more visible over the next year. Higher energy prices can reduce household purchasing power, increase business costs and complicate monetary-policy decisions, particularly in economies that rely heavily on imported fuel.
US inflation is forecast at 3.6% in 2026 before easing to 2.6% in 2027. China is expected to grow 4.5% this year and 4.2% next year, while euro-zone growth is projected at 1.0% in both years.
The outlook also highlights the increasing interaction between technology investment and traditional macroeconomic pressures. While AI-related capital expenditure has supported demand, the OECD cautioned that weaker returns from such investment could become a downside risk if expectations surrounding productivity and commercial adoption fail to materialise.
Energy markets remain another major variable. European economies face additional exposure to higher gas prices and constrained supplies, while countries across emerging markets remain vulnerable to imported energy inflation and tighter global financing conditions.
For policymakers, the revised outlook provides evidence of resilience but also underscores the limited room for complacency. Governments and central banks must continue balancing inflation control with support for investment and household demand as geopolitical and commodity risks remain elevated.
The trajectory of global growth will therefore depend increasingly on energy-market stability, monetary policy and whether AI-led investment can continue supporting productivity and corporate spending.
