Brent crude rose to $103.16 a barrel on Wednesday, while West Texas Intermediate reached $90.20. Brent was on course for a monthly gain of about 14%, its strongest monthly increase since July, as traders continued to assess the impact of the conflict and uncertainty around the Strait of Hormuz.
The latest price pressure came as efforts to advance US-Iran negotiations showed limited progress. Qatar has continued shuttle diplomacy between Washington and Tehran, while US President Donald Trump rejected reports that Washington was considering sanctions relief or the release of frozen Iranian funds in exchange for progress on Iran's nuclear programme.
At the same time, physical crude supply from the Gulf has begun to recover. Saudi Arabia resumed tanker loadings at the Red Sea port of Yanbu after operations on its East-West Pipeline restarted. Goldman Sachs estimated Gulf oil exports had recovered to 23.3 million barrels per day during the latest week, broadly in line with 2025 levels.
JPMorgan, however, estimated that the 10-day average for total oil exports remained at 20.5 million barrels per day, or about 89% of 2025 levels. Persistent shortages of refined products and elevated freight costs are therefore continuing to support tighter conditions across the wider energy market.
The divergence between recovering crude flows and still-elevated prices highlights the importance of refined-product availability, shipping costs and geopolitical risk to the current market.
For oil-importing economies, sustained prices above $100 could increase transport and production costs and complicate inflation management. Governments and refiners will also be watching developments around Hormuz, where any further disruption could quickly affect global supply expectations.
The immediate focus will remain on the diplomatic channel between Washington and Tehran, the restoration of Gulf export infrastructure and evidence of whether physical oil flows can normalise without a broader deterioration in regional security.
