The warning was issued by the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) in a report released ahead of the COP31 climate conference in Antalya, Türkiye. It highlights the growing overlap between conflict, forced displacement and climate change, with environmental pressures making already difficult humanitarian conditions more severe.
The report points to a challenge that extends beyond the immediate effects of extreme weather. Climate-related damage can undermine the prospects of displaced people returning home safely and rebuilding their lives. More than two-thirds of refugee returns recorded during the first half of 2026 were to countries highly exposed to climate hazards, according to UNHCR.
Returning communities may face limited access to water, damaged infrastructure and unreliable agricultural conditions. In Syria, for example, returning refugees are confronting water scarcity, irregular rainfall and flooding. These pressures can weaken livelihoods and complicate efforts to restore basic services in areas already affected by conflict.
Sub-Saharan Africa faces particular exposure to rising temperatures. UNHCR warned that dangerous heat could affect one in three refugee settlements in the region for at least 100 days annually by 2050. The agency also highlighted the risk of severe flooding in East Africa, which could displace up to three million people by the end of the year if forecast weather conditions intensify.
The funding imbalance remains a central concern. Only about 10% of climate finance reaches fragile or conflict-affected countries, according to the report. These countries often have limited institutional capacity and face difficulties accessing international funding, despite their high exposure to climate-related risks.
The shortfall has implications for governments, humanitarian organisations and development institutions. Adaptation investment in water systems, resilient housing, early-warning services and climate-resilient infrastructure could reduce future displacement pressures and support more sustainable returns.
The findings place additional pressure on international climate negotiations to address the needs of communities most exposed to environmental disruption. As governments prepare for COP31, the central question is whether climate-finance commitments can translate into accessible funding for vulnerable populations.
For displaced communities, the effectiveness of climate policy will be measured not only by emissions targets but also by whether investment reaches the places where environmental risks are already threatening safety, livelihoods and the possibility of rebuilding.
