A Reuters analysis of company filings, court records and share transactions estimated that outside investors had collectively lost more than $2.2 billion. The calculation accounted for shares issued and sold by Trump Media, its predecessor entities and company insiders, as well as the effect of share buybacks. Reuters said three finance professors reviewed the methodology and considered it consistent with accepted approaches to measuring investor gains and losses.
The company strongly disputed the estimate, describing Reuters’ calculations as misleading and arguing that the actual gains or losses of individual sellers cannot be established from public trading data. Trump Media said it had built a strong balance sheet and remained focused on creating shareholder value, including through its proposed merger with nuclear fusion company TAE Technologies.
The market decline has nevertheless exposed the gap between the company’s earlier valuation and its operating performance. Its shares have fallen sharply from their previous highs, while its social media business has struggled to attract customers and expand revenue. Reuters reported that annual revenue had remained around $4 million for three years, despite substantial spending on its Truth Social streaming service.
The company’s cryptocurrency strategy has added another source of uncertainty. Trump Media accumulated digital assets before a significant market downturn, exposing its balance sheet and investor sentiment to movements in highly volatile markets. Its filings also identify reputational and political risks associated with the company’s dependence on the Trump brand.
President Donald Trump’s 114.75 million shares were valued at approximately $460 million at Thursday’s closing price of $4.02, according to Reuters. That represented a substantial decline from the stake’s paper value of more than $6 billion when the stock traded near its peak.
The proposed TAE Technologies transaction could provide a new strategic direction, but it does not resolve questions about execution, financing or the commercial prospects of the existing business.
Investors will be watching the merger process, revenue growth and the company’s ability to demonstrate that its technology and media operations can generate durable cash flow. The central test is whether Trump Media can establish a viable business model beyond the political attention that initially supported its market valuation.
