The surplus reached $1.04 trillion between January and October, customs data showed on Tuesday, surpassing the trillion-dollar threshold for a second consecutive year and reaching it a month earlier than in 2025. Exports rose 35.2% in October from a year earlier in US dollar terms, ahead of the 33.5% increase forecast by economists in a Reuters poll.
Shipments of semiconductors increased 111.1% in value during the first 10 months, while exports of high-technology products rose 47.9%. The figures underline the contribution of the global race to expand AI computing capacity to Chinese manufacturers, particularly suppliers of electronic components and advanced equipment.
Imports also grew strongly, rising 41.6% in October from a year earlier, compared with a forecast increase of 32%. The increase reflected broad demand for overseas goods and raw materials, while crude oil imports reached their highest level since March as buyers adjusted to supply disruptions in the Middle East.
The export performance offers support to an economy where households remain cautious about spending and the property market continues to weigh on confidence. Domestic vehicle sales fell for a 12th consecutive month, prompting manufacturers to seek growth in overseas markets.
However, the widening surplus is likely to intensify trade friction with major partners. European Union officials have called for additional measures to address competition from Chinese manufacturers, while the trade imbalance remains a sensitive issue in relations with Washington. The United States and China have extended their trade truce by two months, but disagreements over tariffs and market access remain unresolved.
Analysts have warned that dependence on overseas demand leaves China exposed to a slowdown in global trade or new protectionist measures. The current AI investment cycle is expected to support technology exports into 2027, although growth could moderate as the comparison base rises.
The data highlights China’s manufacturing strength but also the challenge facing policymakers: sustaining growth while reducing reliance on foreign demand and supporting a more durable recovery in domestic consumption.
