Data reviewed by Reuters showed that only 33 vessels transited the strait from Monday to Thursday, compared with 50 during the corresponding period a week earlier. Just six crude oil tankers had exited the waterway during the week, while 21 vessels had entered, most using the Iranian route.
The decline is significant because the strait normally handles between 130 and 140 vessels a day. The reduction therefore represents more than a temporary shipping inconvenience: it demonstrates how security, sanctions and insurance constraints can restrict physical trade even when political negotiations point towards reopening.
Some Chinese and Indian refiners have attempted to secure vessels to collect discounted Basrah crude from Iraq. State oil marketer SOMO has offered discounts of close to $30 a barrel for Basrah Heavy and Basrah Medium crude for August loading. Yet shipping sources said no vessels had been fixed because shipowners remain reluctant to enter the waterway.
That disconnect between commodity availability and transport capacity is increasingly important for global markets. A producer may have crude available for export, but if shipowners cannot obtain adequate insurance or operate within the applicable sanctions framework, the supply cannot move efficiently.
The proposed Iran-Oman arrangement faces precisely this problem. Industry sources told Reuters that the framework would be difficult to implement because of US sanctions and restrictive insurance clauses governing payments.
The disruption is also shifting activity elsewhere. Twenty-six vessels transited the Bab el-Mandeb Strait on Thursday, up from 19 the previous day, although different tracking systems produced slightly different counts.
For businesses, the episode illustrates the increasing importance of logistics resilience. Energy companies, commodity traders, manufacturers and shipping firms must account not only for physical supply but also for regulatory access, insurance and geopolitical risk.
What to watch: actual vessel bookings, insurance availability, sanctions exemptions and the movement of crude through Hormuz. A sustained increase in commercial traffic would provide stronger evidence of reopening than diplomatic announcements alone.
